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Pairs are
dealt 42% of the time in five card poker, so this is a hand
players will see on a regular basis. The correct strategy when
holding a hand players will see on a pair, any pair, is to call,
regardless of the dealer's upcard. This is a clear gain in all
situations.
Note that this doesn't mean players win money in the long run
in all pair situations. For example, when holding 2's, 3's,
4's, 5's, 6's, and 7's, players long term expectations are negative,
that is, they will show a loss. However, except for the lowest
of pairs, the 2's-4's, players will always have a positive expectation
of winning when their pair is greater than the dealer's upcard.
For example, if we hold a pair of 9's, and the dealer shows
an 8, we have a long term expectation of winning.
We already know that the dealer's 8 if paired and not improved
with a further 8 or second pair, is a loser to our 9's. Our
strategy with these low pairs is to minimize losses, just as
in blackjack when we are dealt inferior hands like 12-16 - the
bust hands. In Caribbean Stud Poker, it is a mistake to throw
away small pairs just because they're weak.
Yes, they may be weak, but keeping them is a lot stronger strategy
than discarding them and forfeiting the ante. Players that throw
away small pairs give up anywhere from 5-10% depending upon
the pairs they discard. That's a bad loss to take.
Remember that the general strategy in Caribbean Stud Poker is
to minimize losses in bad situations, as when we're dealt a
small pair and play it for lesser losses, and to maximize winnings
when our situation is strong, as when we're dealt two pair or
higher. To again use a blackjack analogy, when there is a doubling
down situation, which means we have the edge, we want to get
more money on the table.
The strongest pairs are 10's, J's, Q's, K's, and A's. These
pairs have a positive expectation of winning against all dealer
upcards.
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