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Generally speaking,
unless the progressive jackpot is in the hundreds of thousands,
the progressive $1 wager is a complete sucker bet giving the
house an edge that hovers around 50% in most cases and goes
as high as almost 75% in the worse case. Ouch! Even when the
jackpot is say $250,000, the player still may be giving the
casino an enormous edge by making this bet. The exact edge the
casino enjoys is a function of several factors - the actual
bonus paid on four of a kinds, full houses and flushes, which
as we've seen, varies from casino to casino; the size of the
jackpot itself; and equally important, the size of the ante
bet.
This last factor, the size of the ante bet, is important because
the progressive bet cannot be made as an independent wager by
itself. At a minimum, to play Caribbean Stud Poker, the player
must place an ante bet, and then optionally, if desired, he
or she can make the progressive bet as well. Since each bet
gives the casino roughly a 5.25% edge, the larger the average
bet, the higher the jackpot must be to compensate for these
bets.
Thus, if $5 were wagered on the ante, a breakeven for the progressive
would be far lower than if $10 were the average ante bet. For
example, if we're playing in a casino with more liberal payouts,
paying 500 for four of a kind, 250 for a full house, and 100
for a flush, and have an average $5 ante bet, then the break-even
on a progressive jackpot would be around $200,000. However,
if we had the less liberal payout of 100 for four of a kind,
75 for a full house, and 50 for a flush, the payout schedule
found at many casinos, the break-even progressive jackpot is
closer to $350,000 on that average $5 bet.
But make that $5 average ante $10, and the break-even jackpot
on the more liberal rules jumps almost $100,000!
A $1 average ante bet would afford overall better odds when
making the $1 progressive and hoping to land a big jackpot,
but that will rarely be found. Most casinos have a $5 minimum
ante bet. Thus, as we see, these three important factors - average
ante size, jackpot size, and bonus payout schedule - all influence
the actual disadvantage a player faces at Caribbean Stud Poker.
Or, in the rare cases where we do find a monster payout that
has built up, the progressive bet may actually be advantageous.
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